Tongkun shares (601233) quarterly report comments: performance in line with expectations PTA-polyester replaces earnings to continue to improve
Core point of view: Filament sales increase by 49 per year.
67%, operating income increased 49.
The company released the first quarter report. In Q1 of 19, the company realized revenue of 116.
78 ppm, an increase of 49 in ten years.
10%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 5.
21 ppm, a ten-year increase4.
The rapid growth in revenue growth was mainly due to the company’s sales 南京桑拿网 growth. According to the company’s sales data, the company’s 19Q1 polyester POY sales were 93 instead of +44.
03%), polyester FDY sales 26 revenue (previously +87.
61%, +4 from the previous quarter.
70%), polyester DTY sells 18 prefixes (twice +32.
11%), the total sales of the three filament products 137 per year (+49.
The production and sales rate of 19Q1 filament exceeded the same period last year, and the company’s destocking effect was obvious.
PTA-polyester supply and demand improved, and raw material price cuts strengthened the profitability of the downstream industry chain.
According to China Fiber Network Information, 2018-19 is a period of slowing production capacity of the PTA industry. With the steady growth of demand, the industry’s supply and demand layout has further improved.
2019 is the peak period for the country’武汉夜生活网s PX to be put into production. We expect costs to fall. Given the tight supply and demand situation, the profitability of the PTA industry is trying to continue to improve.
Based on the price data released by Treasure Island, today (20190425) the PTA-PX spread has widened to 1232 yuan / ton, and the average spread in Q2 19 has reached 1035 so far.
6 yuan / ton, an average price difference of 783 compared with Q1.
7 yuan / ton, an increase of 251.
9 yuan / ton.
Zhejiang Petrochemical expected to contribute 20% of its equity, and the integration layout continued to improve.
According to the company’s 18-year annual report, the company has a 20% stake in ZPEC, which is expected to reach production this year. At that time, the company will realize the cross-cutting of the entire industrial chain of crude oil-PXPTA-polyester filament, and its profitability will be improved compared with the current one.
At the same time, the production of refining and chemical projects will bring investment income to the company.
It is expected that the results for 19-21 will be 1.
44 yuan / share, 1.
89 yuan / share, 2.
11 yuan / share.
We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 2019-21.
89 and 2.
11 yuan / share, corresponding to the current price PE is estimated to be 11.
If the company’s 19 years of convertible bonds are considered, the company’s pro forma EPS for the years 19-21 will be 1.
82 yuan / share, corresponding to the current price of PE 12.
Reference comparable companies’ consensus consensus for 19 years averages 13.
3x PE estimate. Considering the company’s polyester filament industry leader and matching upstream and downstream production capacity matching, we give 2019 performance a 13x PE estimate, which is equivalent to a reasonable value of 18.
72 yuan / share, maintain the company’s “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: A sharp drop in international oil prices will cause the company to lose inventory; reduced filament demand will affect the company’s performance; Zhejiang Petrochemical’s low production schedule is expected to affect the company’s performance.