Changjiu Logistics (603569) update report: Expansion of multi-modal transportation exceeding expectations is still being cultivated

Changjiu Logistics (603569) update report: Expansion of multi-modal transportation exceeding expectations is still being cultivated
This report reads: Auto sales have fallen, company shares have increased and freight rates have exceeded expectations.However, the company’s efficient operating capabilities make stable profits. Key points of investment: Automobile sales growth, transportation volume growth exceeded expectations, lowered profit forecast, target price 淡水桑拿网 and rating.The decline in sales of passenger cars has led to a rise in freight rates and volume growth that was below our expectations.Reduce EPS for 2019-21 to 0.73, 0.75, 0.76 yuan (the original forecast for 2019-20 was 1.13, 1.18 yuan), cut the target price to 13.5 yuan (was 19).13 yuan), downgrade investment rating to “neutral”. The implementation of the super-supervision, freight rates rose, and market share increased slightly.Zhichao’s leading transportation costs rose, driving market freight rates to increase.The new purchase of transportation vehicles by Changjiu Logistics brings market share and long-term market control.However, we have overestimated the continuity of strong governance and sales of passenger cars, and the company’s market expansion and price increase exceeded expectations. Efficient vehicle operation helps maintain medium and long-term gross 夜来香体验网 profit margins.The gross profit of long-term logistics mainly expands higher transportation efficiency, that is, higher average monthly mileage and re-return rate, which is behind the scale effect of transportation and fleet management efficiency.The expansion of transportation scale and the release of own transportation capacity maintained a high gross profit margin.But at the same time we need to pay attention to the fact that the cumulative growth of own capacity has increased the variability of short-term gross profit margin. Re-assessment to cope with the future multimodal transport pattern.The company strives to enhance the competition of automobile transportation by creating multi-asset transportation with heavy assets.Long-term logistics’s investment in multi-modal transportation stations, ships and cars will increase costs during the current downturn in the automotive market, resulting in lower-than-expected results.In the future recovery period, it will be reflected as a comparative advantage that is not easy to copy. risk warning.The sales volume of automobiles has dropped sharply, the OEMs have lowered freight rates, road transport overloads have reappeared, the China-Europe train schedule has significantly reduced, and its own fleet operates inefficiently.